Four of this season’s nine named storms formed in the Gulf, including Isaias, the season’s first and only hurricane and major hurricane.
Despite the super El Niño, the Gulf doesn’t always play by the rules.
Ahead of this hurricane season, the Gulf looked like the area to watch for homegrown development, and that has unfortunately proved true. Four of the nine named storms this year formed in the Gulf: Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, and Isaias.
Typically, El Niño suppresses tropical activity across the deep tropics by producing strong wind shear over the Caribbean and Atlantic. That shear disrupts developing systems and makes it difficult for thunderstorms to organize around a tropical center.
However, El Niño doesn’t always have the same kill switch for the Gulf. Conditions there can still become favorable for development, sometimes giving a disturbance a brief but consequential opportunity to organize and strengthen close to land.
Sadly, Isaias found one of those windows and took full advantage. It became the first and only hurricane of the season, as well as the season’s only major hurricane, before coming ashore along the northern Gulf Coast.
Tonight, I’m thinking of all my friends and family in southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as this powerful storm moves ashore. Please take the threat seriously, follow guidance from local officials, and stay safe.
