The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released it’s 2026-2027 U.S. winter season outlook.
The upcoming winter is expected to be heavily influenced by the strong super El Nino that has been in control since the Spring.
During an El Nino winter, the polar jet stream is typically positioned farther north over Canada, which means warmer than average temperatures and less colder air outbreaks in the northern U.S.
The subtropical jet is typically positioned over the southern U.S. and northern Mexico, which leads to wetter and stormier conditions for the south and southeast U.S.
NOAA’s forecast replicates this pattern with warmer than average temperatures in the north and mild near average temperatures in the south.
The forecast also mimics the precipitation pattern found during an El Nino with wetter than average conditions over the southern half of the U.S., especially over the south and southeast.
“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South. While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.” – Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service.
