How many wins will it take to win the NFC South this season?
A losing record was good enough twice in the past four years and no team has won more than 10 games since Tom Brady led the Buccaneers to a 13-4 record in 2021.
The Carolina Panthers ended Tampa Bay’s four-year reign atop the division by winning a tiebreaker among three 8-9 teams last season.
A strong finish for the Falcons didn’t save Raheem Morris’ job and Atlanta ended up hiring two-time AP NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski.
The Saints went 4-1 down the stretch after a 2-10 start, and may have found a quarterback in Tyler Shough.
This is the weakest division in the NFL so 8 to 10 wins might get it done again.
The race to the top begins Sept. 13.
Baker’s team
The Buccaneers have a coach — Todd Bowles — who is on the hot seat and a quarterback — Baker Mayfield — who called out the organization for not giving him the contract extension he wanted, saying he felt “disrespected.”
Mayfield is motivated to prove he deserves to be paid among the best QBs in the league after a disappointing second half in 2025. He was an MVP candidate when the Bucs opened 6-2 but battled injuries as the team struggled. Despite losing Mike Evans in free agency, the Bucs have the talent to be dynamic on offense under first-year coordinator Zac Robinson. A healthy offensive line is the key.
“Baker is in a great place right now,” general manager Jason Licht said during camp. “I’ve had discussions with him. We’re in a very good place. He is focused on winning and he is focused on having a great year.”
Defense has been an issue for the Buccaneers going back to ’21 when they blew a chance to repeat with Brady. Licht didn’t make any big splashes but bolstered the defense with several key additions in free agency. The most impactful move came through the draft when edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. slipped to Tampa Bay. He’s a potential game-wrecker.
Make or break year
Bryce Young had his best season last year, helping the Panthers overtake the Buccaneers. But Carolina didn’t give him a contract extension and the 2023 No. 1 overall pick will likely play out the season. Young’s fifth-year option for 2027 was already picked up so the team seems prepared to take another season to evaluate him.
Young has a top playmaker in Tetairoa McMillan, who was the AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. And, running back Chuba Hubbard gives the offense a balanced attack. But injuries have hampered the offensive line in training camp and that was evident when the Panthers had a joint practice against Houston’s defense.
“We’ve got to be better,” Young said after that one.
Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd bolster a defense that needed to improve the pass rush.
Third-year coach Dave Canales has improved the team in each of his first two seasons. Next step is double-digit wins.
New man in charge
Stefanski came to Atlanta with an impressive resume after twice leading the lowly Cleveland Browns to the playoffs.
Now, he’s trying to lead the Falcons to their first winning season since 2017.
Tua Tagovailoa was signed to be the No. 1 quarterback but he didn’t separate himself and Michael Penix Jr. returned from knee surgery to make it a competition.
Whichever QB is under center should give the ball to Bijan Robinson as often as possible. The All-Pro running back is one of the best all-around players in the NFL and he’s not the only playmaker in Atlanta’s offense. Drake London and Kyle Pitts got new contracts and heightened expectations.
They’re all in a new system under first-year coordinator Tommy Rees and offensive line coach Bill Callahan.
“We have a lot of different variations,” Robinson said.
The Falcons have problems on defense and won’t have edge rusher Jalon Walker for the season or James Pearce Jr. for the first eight games because of a suspension.
That’ll put pressure on the offense to potentially have to win shootouts.
Reason for hope
Shough went 5-4 as a starter and finished runner-up for the AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
He gives the Saints reason for optimism after some dismal seasons.
New Orleans added veteran running back Travis Etienne and drafted receiver Jordyn Tyson — injured to start the season — in the first round to join Chris Olave and versatile back Alvin Kamara on offense.
Second-year coach Kellen Moore knows how to use his playmakers — he won a Super Bowl as offensive coordinator in Philadelphia in 2024 — so the Saints could have a formidable offense if key players are healthy.
Defense is a concern following the loss of Bryan Bresee to a knee injury and the departure of veteran leader Demario Davis in free agency.
Still, the Saints should be in the mix in this division.
Predicted order of finish
Buccaneers, Panthers, Falcons, Saints.
READ MORE:Buccaneers, Panthers, Falcons and Saints are all contenders in NFL’s weakest division
