Colorado State University has released their first forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Their forecast calls for 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
The big reason for the below average forecast is due to the development of El Nino expected by the summer.
During El Nino (Spanish for “the boy”) the trade winds over the Pacific weaken causing warm water to build up over the equatorial Pacific, which influences upward motion over the eastern and central Pacific basins.
Wind shear (a change in wind speed/direction with height) is also typically lower than normal in the Pacific during El Nino too, which further enhances tropical development. The lower the wind shear, the more favorable it is for tropical systems to organize.
However, wind shear is typically higher than normal in the Atlantic during El Nino, which causes hostile conditions for tropical development.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-November 30.
READ MORE:Colorado State University predicts a below average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
